CTV.ca
November 8, 2006
Canada respects the choice of the American people and hopes the current strong trading relationship will continue, says Prime Minister Stephen Harper's parliamentary secretary.
"We will continue to work with the administration and with Congress," Jason Kenney said Tuesday night.
"Whoever's in control of either house of Congress will want a strong trading relationship with Canada, as we want with the United States."
Robert Fife, CTV's Ottawa bureau chief, said Harper will have to reach out to Congress's Democratic leadership in the way he's done with the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush.
Trade is seen as the wild card now that a new cast of characters will take control of the U.S. House of Representatives south of the border.
Maryscott Greenwood of the Canadian-American Business Council told CTV Newsnet on Tuesday that bilateral relations are strong at the executive level.
The Republican Bush and Conservative Harper have hit it off personally in the past nine months and see eye-to-eye on a number of foreign policy issues. One file that has been resolved is the long-running softwood lumber dispute, although some see the deal as a flawed compromise.
However, if the balance of power changes away from the Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives or the Senate, "it's a great opportunity for Canada to get to know some new folks," Greenwood said.
The Democrats have taken control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 1994. However, they didn't take control of the Senate from the Republicans.
Michael Kergin, a former Canadian ambassador to the U.S., said whoever wins, trade access and policy remain the key issues for Canada.
"It's possible the Democrats might be less interested to provide fast-track authority ... for the President and might be a little more difficult on trade," he told CTV Newsnet's Mike Duffy Live.
"Mind you, the last Congress hasn't been very good for us on softwood lumber or various other files."
Some veteran Congress members from northern and border states, who might advance into leadership roles should the Democrats take control of the House, might want the border to work better, he said.
Gordon Giffin, an ambassador to Canada in the Clinton administration era, doesn't believe a change at the congressional level will have much impact.
"Dealing with Canada is not a partisan matter in this country, and I think there will still be a very solid policy with respects to Canada," he told Mike Duffy Live.
Renan Levine, a University of Toronto political scientist, echoed that view.
"I don't think protectionism breaks down really cleanly on party lines these days," he told CTV.ca.
U.S. politicians tend to vote more along district lines that party ones. There's also a lot more "trading" of votes in the U.S. system, he said.
Greenwood said she didn't think border or homeland security would be major partisan issues.
"Canada has a great story to tell in that regard," she said. "A lot has been done since 9/11 ... the challenge for Canada is getting that story out, and to make sure the policy-makers are fully aware of what a great partner Canada is in its own interests as well as the interests of protecting the continent."
Fife said the Democrats' gains won't change the requirement for Canadians to have passports or secure IDs to enter the United States.
Energy the tie that binds
The energy issue -- Canada has it, the United States wants it -- will be a big issue.
"I think there will be energy legislation coming out of the 110th Congress, and I do think that Canada is the most important component in our future economic prosperity," Greenwood said.
"Our economies are inextricably linked, and it's really important for our prosperity, going forward, that we have the resources that we, all in North America, need."
Levine said the next chairman of the House energy and commerce committee will likely be Rep. John Dingell (D., Michigan).
"It one of the committees that has the most to do with U.S.-Canada relations," he said.
Dingell is strongly opposed to Toronto's trash entering Michigan, along with a host of border security issues, Levine warned.
Greenwood acknowledged what the Conservative government has been promoting that Canada is an emerging energy superpower.
"It's one of the few good-guy countries in the world that is," she said.
Fife said progress might come on the issue of the Alaska natural gas pipeline.
Greenwood said in any event, the U.S. political system is designed for gridlock, and this election won't change that.
Some observers think Canadian concerns will fall below the radar if the Democrats take control of the House. They expect an armada of inquiries and hearings into various Bush administration policies to sail forth.
With the next election only two years away, new Democrats want ways to build their profiles for 2008.
Asked about the possibility of Bush becoming a lame duck, Kergin said Bush still controls the major foreign policy and security instruments of the U.S. government.
"As Mr. Harper proceeds on foreign policy issues, he'll still be dealing with the White House and the National Security Council," Kergin said.
"I think it's more on the domestic issues, on the trade issues, that Congress has a more important role to play. And certainly a weakened president has more difficulty in trying to convince Congress not to pass measures or to act in ways that are difficult to Canadian interests."
Giffin said virtually all presidents become lame ducks after the midterm election of their second term.
Fife said ironically, a Democratic Congress could resurrect Bush's presidency in some ways.
"He's pro-free trade, and he will use his veto power to block protectionist measures," he said.
"In the end, we may end up liking George Bush."