But Democratic takeover of U.S. Congress not necessarily good for Canada
The Hamilton Spectator
November 6, 2006
By Tim Harper
Washington, DC
The Democrats are at the door.
For voters on this side of the border, there is an expectation that a Democratic takeover of the U.S. Congress will hasten the departure of American troops from a painful and costly war in Iraq, a move sparked as much by the new arrivals as a chastened and nervous pack of remaining Republicans.
The impact this apparent sea change in tomorrow's U.S. midterm elections would have on Canada is harder to gauge.
On the eve of tomorrow's mid-term elections, every poll and projection shows the Democrats poised to take perhaps 30 seats in the House of Representatives -- double what they need to regain control after 12 years in opposition -- and control of the Senate is suddenly a toss-up.
Democrats need a swing of six Republican Senate seats and they appear to be halfway there, running well ahead in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island and seeking to sweep three races too close to call -- Montana, Missouri and Virginia.
The House has never changed hands in this country without the Senate following. Such a Democratic wave does provide opportunity for Ottawa and those who advocate Canadian positions in the U.S. capital.
"First and foremost, it puts an end to the arrogant foreign policy of the Bush administration and that is good news for every country,'' said one consultant in Washington, with a foot on both sides of the border.
Canadians often feel they are more in tune with Democrats on social, environmental and foreign affairs policy, but this is a Democratic party which remains protectionist on trade and determined to show their bona fides on security.
It was Democrats who led the U.S. charge on the softwood lumber dispute and trying to keep Canadian beef out of this country.
"I think Canadians should not presume anything based on who comes to power,'' says Paul Frazer, a former Canadian ambassador and now a Washington-based consultant.
"You have to remain vigilant and protect your interests.''
But Scotty Greenwood, executive director of the Canadian-American Business Council, said the Democrats as protectionists argument is "too simplistic'' and feels the bilateral relationship is sufficiently evolved that trade irritants will be dealt with individually on merit.
"The Congress as a whole is more protectionist than the executive branch,'' she says.
"It doesn't get worse under the Democrats.''
The move to push back a plan to require passports or other secure documents for land border crossings between Canada and the U.S. was a bipartisan move in a Republican-controlled Congress -- although the Democrat who carried the freight on that amendment, Vermont's Patrick Leahy, is in line for the chair of the powerful judiciary committee if his party takes the Senate. On the House side, a Democrat takeover could propel New York's Louise Slaughter, an opponent of the new border measures, to the chair of the rules committee. One analyst called this a "home run'' for Canada-U.S. relations.
That committee essentially determines which bills go to the full House for debate.
One platform plank of the Democrats is the full implementation of the Sept. 11 Commission recommendations and the new Canada-U.S. land border crossings stem from that commission, making a further delay improbable.
The Bush administration, which will still wield the executive power, has made it clear it wants the new plan in place as close to the original Jan. 1, 2008, deadline as possible.
"The two years of this Congress will be framed for the race for the White House and Democrats determined to make a case for why a Democrat should be president in 2008,'' Frazer said.
"Canada -- or anyone -- outside that realm will be falling by the wayside.''
Some observers suggest Democrats may temper the immigration debate in this country and remove the hardline stance in the Republican-controlled House which led to the decision to build a 1,200-kilometre fence along the southern border and study the feasibility of a similar fence on the northern border.
At very least, with Democrats heading appropriations committees, money may not be freed up for such a study.
There are at least three races where American legislators who are no friends of Canada could be bounced tomorrow. In Montana, Republican Senator Conrad Burns is in one of the toughest races in the country. Burns is one of the most recent legislators here to claim the 9/11 hijackers came from Canada.
He offered a half-apology after Ambassador Michael Wilson complained.
In Indiana, Republican Congressman John Hostettler is also in trouble.
He is the legislator who told the country that "south Toronto'' was like parts of London, England, where "people adhere to a militant understanding of Islam.''
Hostettler, who is the chair of the subcommittee on immigration and border security, also stressed Toronto's large South Asian community.
In the campaign's final hours, he has tried to demonize California Democrat Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader in the House who would become the first woman to be House leader if her party wins tomorrow, warning voters she would pursue a "homosexual agenda.''
And in Arizona, staunch conservative J.D. Hayworth is suddenly in a race.
He is a strong backer of beefed-up security at the northern border, telling Fox News that the U.S. should be using the military and the best technology available on the northern border, "because we're a nation at war.''
Even if Republicans somehow retain power, Greenwood said, there will be a shuffle of committee and subcommittee chairs, where the real bilateral work is done.
This new class of Democrats, as well, are among the most moderate -- some would say right of centre -- group the party has likely ever recruited.
The expected Democratic winner in the Senate race in Pennsylvania, Bob Casey, is antiabortion. Brad Ellsworth proudly trumpeted his 'A' rating from the National Rifle Association in Indiana. Heath Shuler, a onetime Washington Redskins quarterback who is seeking a North Carolina seat for the Democrats, opposes gay marriage and abortion and talks regularly of his religious faith.
Democrats will have the power to impose much more oversight over Bush administration decisions, but have vowed they will not seek impeachment or spend an inordinate amount of time re-examining the run-up to the Iraq war.
Pelosi has already identified priorities in the party's first 100 hours in power.
They include raising the minimum wage, authorizing the health secretary to negotiate lower drug prices, end subsidies to big oil companies, cut the interest rate on college loans, impose new ethics regulations in Congress and authorize more money for law enforcement first responders and the purchase of unsecured nuclear weapons from the states of the former Soviet Union.